Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk game?

Cyberpunk

Of 964 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,968 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,968 games are announced against 579 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 1,968 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 964
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.4k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $449 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 964
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,742)
Top 5% $189k (exactly $188,874)
Developers, 2 yr 964
Released games 3,065
Announced 1,968
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.95 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.95 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 123,174 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 489 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,968 games are announced against 579 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Cyberpunk

136 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. CRPG + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.7k 23 devs
  2. Looter Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.6k 22 devs
  3. Simulation + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.6k 165 devs
  4. Life Sim + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.6k 23 devs
  5. Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.5k 237 devs
  6. Multiple Endings + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.5k 96 devs
  7. Destruction + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.5k 18 devs
  8. Third-Person Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.4k 53 devs
  9. Immersive Sim + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.4k 74 devs
  10. Local Co-Op + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.4k 16 devs
  11. Adventure + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.3k 292 devs
  12. Typing + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.3k 17 devs
  13. Arena Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.3k 62 devs
  14. Choices Matter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 146 devs
  15. Turn-Based Tactics + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 63 devs
  16. Beat 'em up + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 34 devs
  17. Dynamic Narration + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 14 devs
  18. Action-Adventure + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 145 devs
  19. Turn-Based Strategy + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 58 devs
  20. Dungeon Crawler + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 30 devs
  21. Sandbox + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 28 devs
  22. Procedural Generation + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 84 devs
  23. Twin Stick Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.1k 31 devs
  24. Flight + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.1k 19 devs
  25. FMV + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.1k 15 devs
  26. Tactical + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 62 devs
  27. Rhythm + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 45 devs
  28. Tower Defense + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 34 devs
  29. Perma Death + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 40 devs
  30. Bullet Heaven + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 20 devs
  31. Character Customization + Cyberpunk Poor odds $987 77 devs
  32. Combat Racing + Cyberpunk Poor odds $958 25 devs
  33. Survival + Cyberpunk Poor odds $900 65 devs
  34. PvP + Cyberpunk Poor odds $899 61 devs
  35. Collectathon + Cyberpunk Poor odds $899 22 devs
  36. Action + Cyberpunk Poor odds $898 534 devs
  37. Action Roguelike + Cyberpunk Poor odds $898 146 devs
  38. Logic + Cyberpunk Poor odds $898 35 devs
  39. Open World + Cyberpunk Poor odds $809 38 devs
  40. Combat + Cyberpunk Poor odds $807 189 devs
  41. Point & Click + Cyberpunk Poor odds $807 61 devs
  42. Card Battler + Cyberpunk Poor odds $779 43 devs
  43. Strategy + Cyberpunk Poor odds $750 209 devs
  44. Real Time Tactics + Cyberpunk Poor odds $750 25 devs
  45. Card Game + Cyberpunk Poor odds $719 54 devs
  46. Grid-Based Movement + Cyberpunk Poor odds $719 26 devs
  47. Class-Based + Cyberpunk Poor odds $719 22 devs
  48. Tabletop + Cyberpunk Poor odds $719 17 devs
  49. Bullet Hell + Cyberpunk Poor odds $657 133 devs
  50. Platformer + Cyberpunk Poor odds $599 117 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Detroit: Become Human 2020 · $272M Stray 2022 · $142M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
RoboCop: Rogue City older $39.99 28,196 86% 846k $34M (exactly $33,826,741) Teyon
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Peripeteia · EA $24.99 3,120 86% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) Ninth Exodus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.