Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Combat game?

Combat + Cyberpunk

Of 189 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 467 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×364 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 467 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 467 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 189
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $1.1k → $600 → $1.9k → $899 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 189
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,191)
Top 5% $229k (exactly $228,524)
Developers, 2 yr 189
Released games 576
Announced 467
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 32,669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $810, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 112 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 467 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Ghostwire: Tokyo older $59.99 12,954 83% 389k $23M (exactly $23,313,314) Tango Gameworks
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
Necromunda: Hired Gun older $39.99 5,892 68% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,068,632) Streum On Studio
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Turbo Overkill older $19.99 6,412 94% 192k $3.8M (exactly $3,845,276) Trigger Happy Interactive
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
METAL EDEN $19.99 1,920 84% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) Reikon Games
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
Card-en-Ciel $24.99 856 90% 26k $642k (exactly $641,743) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Out of Action · EA $19.99 916 77% 27k $549k (exactly $549,325) Doku Games LTD
SPRAWL zero $24.99 710 94% 21k $532k (exactly $532,287) MAETH
HUNTDOWN: OVERTIME · EA $16.99 830 88% 25k $423k (exactly $423,051) Easy Trigger Games
Steel Seed $39.99 339 78% 10k $407k (exactly $406,698) Storm in a Teacup
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.