Do I ship it?

Games › FMV › FMV + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk FMV?

FMV + Cyberpunk

Only 15 developers shipped a Cyberpunk FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sex & Blood: Vampires, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×362 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $129k → $300 → $599 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,646)
Top 5% $227k (exactly $227,472)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 39
Announced 26
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
FMV; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tesla Effect: A Tex Murphy Adventure 2014 · $377k 反转21克 2024 · $275k The Solitaire Conspiracy 2020 · $267k Sex & Blood: Vampires 2024 · $227k Blade Runner: Enhanced Edition 2022 · $185k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tesla Effect: A Tex Murphy Adventure older $19.99 628 90% 19k $377k (exactly $376,612) Big Finish Games
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
Sex & Blood: Vampires $9.99 759 71% 23k $227k (exactly $227,472) Taboo Tales 💘
Blade Runner: Enhanced Edition older $9.99 617 74% 19k $185k (exactly $184,915) Nightdive Studios, Westwood Studios
[ECHOSTASIS] older $19.99 215 90% 6.5k $129k (exactly $128,935) ENIGMA STUDIO
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
Futa Nights: Bloody Sluts 💋 $14.99 159 74% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,502) Dirty Adventures 🖤
STRAY GIRL 🔞 $9.99 179 79% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) Carnality INC
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
INFINITY DEADLINE $0.99 56 94% 1.7k $1.7k (exactly $1,663) YvelRevo
BLACK STACK $8.99 5 60% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) BLACKGLASS ASSEMBLY
BYTE $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) James Martini
Transforming my fiancée $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) FSK20006
OKeverything with 3000 beauties 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) XIOF FAN, S+TEAMBABA, XU TING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.