Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Cyberpunk

Of 22 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×90 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $2.5k → $4.2k → $899 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,985)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $56,662)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 43
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Simulation, Crafting
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,859 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
Lower? Higher! $9.99 146 67% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Unplugged Studio
SOULVARS older $16.99 70 78% 2.1k $36k (exactly $35,679) ginolabo, SUCCESS Corp.
RoadOut $14.99 34 97% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Rastrolabs Game Studio
Like No Other: The Legend Of The Twin Books older $15.99 27 74% 810 $13k (exactly $12,952) Actoon Studio
Package Runner older $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Oddity
Sexbot Lab $5.99 50 56% 1.5k $9.0k (exactly $8,985) AdultPlay
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Filtration $19.99 7 100% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Whirligig Studios
Triptych Book I: Blockhead · EA $13.99 6 66% 180 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) Mords, Tootsie
32 SECS $4.99 15 80% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) isTom Games Kft.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.