Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy

Of 2,043 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,529 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×595 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 3,529 games are announced against 1,256 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 3,529 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,043
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $5.4k → $3.1k → $2.4k → $2.5k → $2.1k → $899 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,043
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $374k (exactly $373,817)
Developers, 2 yr 2,043
Released games 5,955
Announced 3,529
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 217,746 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 1,029 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,529 games are announced against 1,256 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Turn-Based Strategy

130 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Naval Combat + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $600 15 devs
  2. PvP + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $599 302 devs
  3. Turn-Based Strategy + Point & Click Poor odds $599 48 devs
  4. Turn-Based Strategy + Board Game Poor odds $598 393 devs
  5. Turn-Based Strategy + Gambling Poor odds $539 41 devs
  6. Turn-Based Strategy + Logic Poor odds $535 150 devs
  7. Turn-Based Strategy + Score Attack Poor odds $535 45 devs
  8. Turn-Based Strategy + Tabletop Poor odds $450 307 devs
  9. Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $450 82 devs
  10. Turn-Based Strategy + Puzzle Platformer Poor odds $421 26 devs
  11. Turn-Based Strategy + Platformer Poor odds $360 17 devs
  12. Destruction + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $239 8 devs
  13. FPS + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $239 8 devs
  14. Turn-Based Strategy + Match 3 Poor odds $178 21 devs
  15. Racing + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $89 12 devs
  16. Sailing + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $47k 6 devs
  17. MMORPG + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $9.6k 2 devs
  18. Action-Adventure + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $450 50 devs
  19. Turn-Based Strategy + 2D Platformer Dead $421 138 devs
  20. Shooter + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $360 25 devs
  21. Turn-Based Strategy + Dynamic Narration Dead $359 10 devs
  22. 3D Platformer + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $330 36 devs
  23. Turn-Based Strategy + Incremental Dead $299 58 devs
  24. Turn-Based Strategy + Party Game Dead $299 38 devs
  25. Turn-Based Strategy + 4 Player Local Dead $299 25 devs
  26. 2D Fighter + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $299 19 devs
  27. Turn-Based Strategy + Solitaire Dead $240 62 devs
  28. Turn-Based Strategy + Time Manipulation Dead $150 9 devs
  29. MOBA + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $0 11 devs
  30. Flight + Turn-Based Strategy Dead $0 8 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.