Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Incremental

Of 58 developers who shipped an Incremental Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 40 developers shipped in the last year and 71 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 71 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $538 → $299 → $299 → $450 → $150 → $240 (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $99,657)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 129
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Idler, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
Escape Dungeon older $12.99 817 79% 25k $318k (exactly $318,385) Hide Games
挂机神话 older $1.99 1,693 90% 51k $101k (exactly $101,072) 狮子
挂机手游模拟器 $2.99 1,111 91% 33k $100k (exactly $99,657) 天光
Calculate It · EA older $6.99 264 87% 7.9k $55k (exactly $55,361) SVGames
The Sealed Ampoule older $19.99 56 80% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) CAVYHOUSE
CyberTD older $19.99 50 66% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Clockwork Origins
RoGlass $9.99 88 98% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) James Castle
The Dragonhood older $7.99 83 73% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,895) Scrambled Games
100FRIENDS $9.99 32 87% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) TWIN PIXELS
Upgradia · EA $9.99 32 65% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Mytharia
Idle Kitty $4.99 64 82% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) 狮子
Galactic Simulator2: Stargate $5.99 42 78% 1.3k $7.5k (exactly $7,547) PcZ Games
Skulker $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Krow Game
Regnum Idle $4.99 19 63% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Vexos Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.