Do I ship it?

Games › Naval Combat › Naval Combat + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 15 developers shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Red Rogue Sea, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $27k, ×43 the market median. Revenue is up 1245% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1245% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0M → $150 → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,249)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $27,014)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 48
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1245% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Turn-Based Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 142 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M Rule the Waves 3 2023 · $1.0M Horizon's Gate 2020 · $727k Strategic Mind: The Pacific 2019 · $484k Hasbro's BATTLESHIP 2018 · $310k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Rule the Waves 3 older $39.99 855 87% 26k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) Naval Warfare Simulations
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
Strategic Mind: The Pacific older $29.99 538 74% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Starni Games
Hasbro's BATTLESHIP older $12.49 828 82% 25k $310k (exactly $310,252) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
Battle Fleet 2 older $14.99 322 74% 9.7k $145k (exactly $144,803) Mythical City Games
Frontline: Panzer Blitzkrieg! older $9.99 102 86% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,569) Frontline: Games Series
Red Rogue Sea $16.99 53 64% 1.6k $27k (exactly $27,014) Firemage Studios
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
XR22-SEAGUARD $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Jean-Francois, Clifford Ondini
Clad in Iron: War of The Pacific 1879 $15.99 3 66% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Totem Games
DEPTH STRIKE $3.00 10 100% 300 $900 (exactly $900) Victoria Games
Mech and Tech 1 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) colmer_it UG
Tales of Arcrath $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Codex Games USA
Mk50TWL Vehicle Battler Custom Slider · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) TimberWoodLumber Games
Pirate Sagas: The Golden Age · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pirate Sagas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.