Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Tabletop

Of 307 developers who shipped a Tabletop Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 427 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×208 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 427 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 427 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 307
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $11k → $1.1k → $748 → $1.4k → $450 → $539 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 307
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,571)
Developers, 2 yr 307
Released games 781
Announced 427
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$6.66 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.66.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 32,846 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 146 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 427 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Gremlins, Inc. older $19.99 6,562 85% 197k $3.9M (exactly $3,935,231) Charlie Oscar Lima Tango Interactive En… (Charlie Oscar Lima Tango Interactive Entertainment)
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
NEW MONOPOLY® $29.99 531 36% 16k $478k (exactly $477,741) UBISOFT, Engine Software
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Doodle Empires · EA $6.99 1,279 92% 38k $268k (exactly $268,206) Turtle Stack Games
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.