Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Board Game

Of 393 developers who shipped a Board Game Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 521 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×211 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 521 games are announced against 251 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 521 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 393
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $11k → $1.9k → $1.5k → $987 → $598 → $599 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 393
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,124)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,662)
Developers, 2 yr 393
Released games 1,077
Announced 521
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Board Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Tabletop
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 11,260 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.1k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 171 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 521 games are announced against 251 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
NEW MONOPOLY® $29.99 531 36% 16k $478k (exactly $477,741) UBISOFT, Engine Software
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.