Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Turn-Based Strategy?

PvP + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 302 developers who shipped a PvP Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 578 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 578 games are announced against 193 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 578 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 302
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.1k → $2.4k → $1.8k → $899 → $600 → $600 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 302
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $99,697)
Developers, 2 yr 302
Released games 994
Announced 578
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 78,821 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 176 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 578 games are announced against 193 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
NEW MONOPOLY® $29.99 531 36% 16k $478k (exactly $477,741) UBISOFT, Engine Software
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.