Do I ship it?

Games › Destruction › Destruction + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Destruction game?

Destruction + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 8 developers shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SGS Spain at War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 27 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $19k → $150 → $2.7k → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,492)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 40
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 80,101 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance 2024 · $14M Worms Ultimate Mayhem 2011 · $1.9M Shadows of Forbidden Gods 2023 · $627k Rock of Ages 3: Make & Break 2020 · $566k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Worms Ultimate Mayhem older $14.99 4,303 89% 129k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,059) Team17 Digital Ltd
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Rock of Ages 3: Make & Break older $14.99 1,259 78% 38k $566k (exactly $566,172) ACE Team, Giant Monkey Robot
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
Hasbro's BATTLESHIP older $12.49 828 82% 25k $310k (exactly $310,252) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Silent Storm Gold Edition older $9.99 963 88% 29k $289k (exactly $288,611) Nival
I Am Your President older $14.99 263 66% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) President
SGS Spain at War $29.99 25 88% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Warga… (Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Wargames)
Disaster Blaster $9.99 9 88% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Jarsick
The Legacy of Shadow's Bane TCG $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Omni-Games and Collectibles LLC
Stack Attack $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Sleepy Fox Games
Wild Wizard War $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Maxeymus Games
KaijuStory $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SneakySquid
Voxel Siege $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Frontier App Labs
Chess Flicks $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JDL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.