Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + 4 Player Local

Of 25 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 18 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $2.4k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $11k → $0 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $29,385)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 81
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, 4 Player Local; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Tabletop
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 364 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Worms Revolution older $14.99 5,664 86% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,547,101) Team17 Digital Ltd
Wargroove older $19.99 4,015 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,407,796) Chucklefish
Worms Reloaded older $19.99 3,378 86% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,787) Team17 Digital Ltd
Worms Ultimate Mayhem older $14.99 4,303 89% 129k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,059) Team17 Digital Ltd
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Worms Clan Wars older $24.99 1,678 77% 50k $1.3M (exactly $1,257,997) Team17 Digital Ltd
Dokapon Kingdom: Connect older $49.99 801 86% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,260) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Sting
No Time to Relax older $13.99 2,486 92% 75k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,374) Porcelain Fortress
Tennis Elbow Manager 2 older $29.99 202 91% 6.1k $182k (exactly $181,739) Mana Games
Evolution Board Game older $14.99 348 81% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) North Star Digital Studios
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
Beacon Patrol $11.99 70 97% 2.1k $25k (exactly $25,179) Shapes and Dreams, BrutalHack
Keep the Heroes Out $19.99 35 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Brueh Games, YarnCat Games
Critter Crossfire $14.99 31 90% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Evan Polekoff
Super World War $19.99 19 100% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Zero Games Studios
Carnival Heroes - Super party minigames $3.99 39 97% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) LAN - GAMES LTD
Golftacular! $5.99 17 94% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Both Good
Boardquest: Tales of Liria $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ramezware SL
Hybrid Beasts $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Beastbits

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.