Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Shooter?

Shooter + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 25 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 33 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1335% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $3.9k → $3.0k → $356 → $15k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 86
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1335% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, PvE, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cinematic, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 28,274 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Worms W.M.D older $29.99 10,435 85% 313k $9.4M (exactly $9,388,370) Team17
ShellShock Live older $9.99 29,340 93% 880k $8.8M (exactly $8,793,198) kChamp Games
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Worms Ultimate Mayhem older $14.99 4,303 89% 129k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,059) Team17 Digital Ltd
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Wild Bastards older $34.99 616 74% 18k $647k (exactly $646,615) Blue Manchu
Breach & Clear older $9.99 2,019 82% 61k $605k (exactly $605,094) Mighty Rabbit Studios, Gun Interactive
Thunder Tank: Iron Shield $3.99 221 82% 6.6k $26k (exactly $26,454) Crazy Studio
Decks of Dexterity $14.99 33 100% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Coded Games
Idle Zombie Wave: Premium $7.99 21 38% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Ryki Studio
Starbug Troopers : The 4 horseflies of the apocalypse $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Big Loot Games
Bedroom Battlegrounds $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) WCHC
KeyFortress · EA $7.99 12 83% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Daisen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.