Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Dynamic Narration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dynamic Narration Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Dynamic Narration

Only 10 developers shipped a Dynamic Narration Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Empire of Vice : Chicago, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Dynamic Narration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Dynamic Narration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $105 (exactly $105)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 5% $4.6k (exactly $4,587)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dynamic Narration
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Dynamic Narration
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 82% positive over 40 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $110, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $4.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $110. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
AETHERIS older $24.99 166 75% 5.0k $124k (exactly $124,450) WILD WITS
Wizards and Warlords older $9.99 253 82% 7.6k $76k (exactly $75,824) Valravn Games
Heroes of Three Kingdoms · EA older $9.99 190 49% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Wuwei
The Trasamire Campaigns older $12.99 20 70% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) Gemcutter Games
Ceaseless Night older $14.99 13 76% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) JABDP Studio
Empire of Vice : Chicago · EA $16.99 9 77% 270 $4.6k (exactly $4,587) Artifex Parvus
The Beat: A Glam Noir Game older $11.99 10 70% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Up Multimedia
It Returned To The Desert older $4.99 19 94% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Tim Rachor
Cataclysm Wars $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Chicken Cabal Games
Fate’s Theater $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Totally Normal Creature
SIM Election USA $10.99 3 66% 90 $989 (exactly $989) SunsixStudios
Fading Voices $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Mad Harter Studio
Intermundia: Dungeons, Polygons & Magic · EA $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Trinity Team, Excaliber
Endless Roll $3.49 1 100% 30 $105 (exactly $105) Hermit Hollow
Chaos of Destiny Remake · EA $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Klayerama
Absolutes Akestas Tournament $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) KingS001
Beyond the Fracture $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Turning Rook Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.