Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Turn-Based Strategy?

Sailing + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 6 developers shipped a paid Sailing Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $47k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 75.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sailing + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $47k (exactly $47,218)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 27
Announced 11
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 48%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,665 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $47k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Pirates Outlaws 2: Heritage · EA $14.99 105 60% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Fabled Game
12 Labours of Hercules VII: Fleecing the Fleece (Platinum Edition) older $2.99 134 93% 4.0k $12k (exactly $12,020) Jetdogs Studios, Zoom Out Games
Dee-6: Dice Defenders older $4.99 45 73% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) KBA3u's factory
Deep Blue Fantasy · EA older $8.99 15 66% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) Gravity Garden
Pirates - Digital Strategy Game · EA older $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Twin Dimensional Productions
Tailwind older $3.99 12 50% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) ClickGames
DEPTH STRIKE $3.00 10 100% 300 $900 (exactly $900) Victoria Games
Old Salt $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Kneeshaw Developments, Never Board Games
Pirate Sagas: The Golden Age · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pirate Sagas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.