Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Logic

Of 150 developers who shipped a Logic Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 210 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $27k, ×44 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 210 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 210 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 150
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $1.2k → $897 → $1.3k → $629 → $598 → $720 (still earning) → $162 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 150
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $535 (exactly $535)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $27,432)
Developers, 2 yr 150
Released games 388
Announced 210
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,683 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 210 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
GWENT: Rogue Mage (Single-Player Expansion) older $9.99 1,266 54% 38k $379k (exactly $379,420) CD PROJEKT RED
Hasbro's BATTLESHIP older $12.49 828 82% 25k $310k (exactly $310,252) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Quantum Protocol older $12.99 625 90% 19k $244k (exactly $243,562) Kaio Meris
Spaceland: Sci-Fi Indie Tactics older $19.99 358 75% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) Tortuga Team
Let's! Revolution! older $19.99 317 92% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) BUCK Games, Antfood
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Wordatro! $9.99 401 85% 12k $120k (exactly $120,180) Le Poulet
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
Islantiles $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Thunderrock Innovations
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC
Azoove $14.99 46 91% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Timeless Toucan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.