Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Gambling

Of 41 developers who shipped a Gambling Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×477 the market median. Revenue is up 1025% on the market; 78 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1025% on the market, 78 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $359 → $239 → $718 → $14k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Top 5% $300k (exactly $299,500)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 71
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1025% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Gambling; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,439 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $540, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike 2026 · $1.5M Bingle Bingle 2026 · $300k Insider Trading 2026 · $232k LuckLand 2023 · $114k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
LuckLand older $8.99 422 95% 13k $114k (exactly $113,813) e-Jade
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
Midnight Mahjong older $6.99 227 64% 6.8k $48k (exactly $47,602) AleCubicSoft
Pip My Dice $10.99 134 87% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Diving Swan Games
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.