Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi game?

Sci-fi

Of 3,985 developers who shipped a Sci-fi game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,570 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×887 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 7,570 games are announced against 2,371 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 7,570 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,985
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $660 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,985
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 5% $421k (exactly $421,378)
Developers, 2 yr 3,985
Released games 13,382
Announced 7,570
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,176,903 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 2,072 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,570 games are announced against 2,371 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sci-fi

178 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Escape Room + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.5k 26 devs
  2. Immersive Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 209 devs
  3. RTS + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 136 devs
  4. Open World + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 288 devs
  5. Bullet Heaven + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 83 devs
  6. Turn-Based Strategy + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.2k 199 devs
  7. Choose Your Own Adventure + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.2k 193 devs
  8. Exploration + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.2k 989 devs
  9. FPS + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.1k 380 devs
  10. Economy + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.1k 138 devs
  11. Boomer Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.1k 115 devs
  12. Investigation + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.0k 167 devs
  13. Wargame + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 93 devs
  14. Transportation + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 18 devs
  15. Deckbuilding + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 136 devs
  16. Card Battler + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 94 devs
  17. Resource Management + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 361 devs
  18. Interactive Fiction + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 235 devs
  19. Simulation + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 720 devs
  20. Submarine + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 18 devs
  21. Management + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.7k 301 devs
  22. Local Co-Op + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.6k 106 devs
  23. Hunting + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.6k 12 devs
  24. Inventory Management + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.6k 109 devs
  25. Character Customization + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.5k 273 devs
  26. Destruction + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.5k 106 devs
  27. Diplomacy + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.5k 12 devs
  28. Automobile Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.4k 19 devs
  29. Turn-Based Tactics + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.4k 187 devs
  30. Gun Customization + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.4k 94 devs
  31. Multiple Endings + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.4k 391 devs
  32. Perma Death + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.3k 139 devs
  33. God Game + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.3k 26 devs
  34. Adventure + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.3k 1,504 devs
  35. Choices Matter + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 424 devs
  36. Roguelike + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 540 devs
  37. Walking Simulator + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 159 devs
  38. Level Editor + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 74 devs
  39. Grand Strategy + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 48 devs
  40. Creature Collector + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 41 devs
  41. Combat Racing + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 36 devs
  42. Point & Click + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 190 devs
  43. 6DOF + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 42 devs
  44. On-Rails Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 33 devs
  45. Survival Horror + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.2k 202 devs
  46. Time Manipulation + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.1k 62 devs
  47. Split Screen + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.1k 33 devs
  48. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.0k 33 devs
  49. Procedural Generation + Sci-fi Poor odds $987 410 devs
  50. Tactical + Sci-fi Poor odds $959 331 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Subnautica 2018 · $307M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.