Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Roguelike?

Roguelike + Sci-fi

Of 540 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 950 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×1086 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 950 games are announced against 336 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 950 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 540
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $3.0k → $2.9k → $2.3k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $599 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 540
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,200)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,252)
Top 5% $516k (exactly $515,816)
Developers, 2 yr 540
Released games 1,228
Announced 950
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 113,107 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 242 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 950 games are announced against 336 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
Risk of Rain Returns older $14.99 24,795 89% 744k $11M (exactly $11,150,312) Hopoo Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.