Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Destruction game?

Destruction + Sci-fi

Of 106 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 193 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×683 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 193 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 193 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 106
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $599 → $719 → $1.3k → $2.7k → $1.5k → $839 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 106
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 5% $429k (exactly $428,828)
Developers, 2 yr 106
Released games 328
Announced 193
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Physics, Shooter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 13,556 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 193 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
Trepang2 older $39.99 15,774 93% 473k $19M (exactly $18,924,068) Trepang Studios
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Destroy All Humans! older $29.99 8,971 92% 269k $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 4.1 The Shadow of New Despair older $19.99 7,776 95% 233k $4.7M (exactly $4,663,267) SANDLOT
Exoprimal older $59.99 2,581 76% 77k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,026) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Brigador Killers · EA $24.99 572 69% 17k $429k (exactly $428,828) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games
Annihilate The Spance · EA $29.99 347 90% 10k $312k (exactly $312,196) Skyglow Softworks
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.