Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Sci-fi

Of 83 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 166 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1331 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 166 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 166 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $242k → $166k → $12k → $27k → $28k → $6.3k → $3.7k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,056)
Top 5% $632k (exactly $632,067)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 115
Announced 166
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Bullet Heaven; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 60,069 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 166 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program 2026 · $1.2M Greedland 2025 · $1.1M Arms of God 2026 · EA · $645k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Picayune Dreams older $4.99 4,164 98% 125k $623k (exactly $623,351) Stepford, Andyland, milkypossum
NIMRODS · EA $9.99 1,783 85% 53k $534k (exactly $534,365) Fiveamp
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Time Wasters older $4.99 2,549 88% 76k $382k (exactly $381,585) Proton Studio
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.