Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Tactical game?

Tactical + Sci-fi

Of 331 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 672 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1597 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 672 games are announced against 212 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 672 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 331
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $599 → $599 → $1.4k → $1.4k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 331
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,834)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698)
Developers, 2 yr 331
Released games 1,037
Announced 672
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 105,026 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $960, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 672 games are announced against 212 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN older $19.99 73,137 91% 2.2M $44M (exactly $43,860,259) KONAMI
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Call of Duty®: Black Ops II older $39.99 23,307 86% 699k $28M (exactly $27,961,408) Treyarch
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack older $19.99 36,153 97% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,680,954) Petroglyph
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.