Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Sci-fi

Of 202 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 480 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1723 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 480 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 480 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 202
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.1k → $1.9k → $2.9k → $987 → $1.0k → $1.6k (still earning) → $746 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 202
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,155)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,626)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339)
Developers, 2 yr 202
Released games 611
Announced 480
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 193,138 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 128 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 480 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
Metro Exodus older $29.99 117,453 90% 3.5M $106M (exactly $105,672,464) 4A Games
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
Alien: Isolation older $39.99 48,591 92% 1.5M $58M (exactly $58,294,623) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (M… (Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Outlast older $14.99 104,353 96% 3.1M $47M (exactly $46,927,544) Red Barrels
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
Atomfall $49.99 4,526 76% 136k $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) Rebellion
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Species: Unknown · EA $9.99 9,437 94% 283k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,269) WanadevStudio
Project Silverfish · EA $29.99 3,138 93% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) Siris Pendrake
Alien: Rogue Incursion VR $39.99 1,340 70% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,607,598) Survios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.