Should I ship a Sci-fi FPS?
FPS + Sci-fi
Of 380 developers who shipped a Sci-fi FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 894 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2361 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 894 games are announced against 204 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $24,819) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 380 |
| Released games | 1,626 |
| Announced | 894 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 387,637 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 239 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 894 games are announced against 204 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019 · $287M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015 · $284M 
Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Halo: The Master Chief Collection | older | $39.99 | 239,603 92% | 7.2M | $287M (exactly $287,451,719) | 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive) |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops III | older | $59.99 | 157,694 88% | 4.7M | $284M (exactly $283,801,892) | Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac) |
| | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
 | Titanfall® 2 | older | $29.99 | 255,050 95% | 7.7M | $229M (exactly $229,468,485) | Respawn Entertainment |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | DOOM Eternal | older | $29.99 | 187,483 91% | 5.6M | $169M (exactly $168,678,455) | id Software |
 | Half-Life: Alyx | older | $59.99 | 93,001 98% | 2.8M | $167M (exactly $167,373,900) | Valve |
 | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
 | Marathon | $39.99 | 44,919 81% | 1.3M | $54M (exactly $53,889,324) | Bungie | |
 | DOOM: The Dark Ages | $49.99 | 32,209 88% | 966k | $48M (exactly $48,303,837) | id Software | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Starship Troopers: Extermination | $29.99 | 29,724 80% | 892k | $27M (exactly $26,742,683) | Offworld | |
 | Killing Floor 3 | $39.99 | 16,493 46% | 495k | $20M (exactly $19,786,652) | Tripwire Interactive | |
 | Far Far West | · EA | $19.99 | 31,458 95% | 944k | $19M (exactly $18,865,363) | Evil Raptor |
 | Halo: Campaign Evolved | $49.99 | 12,512 61% | 375k | $19M (exactly $18,764,246) | Halo Studios | |
 | Subverse | $39.99 | 13,781 66% | 413k | $17M (exactly $16,533,066) | Studio FOW Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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