Do I ship it?

Games › Automobile Sim › Automobile Sim + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Sci-fi

Only 19 developers shipped a Sci-fi Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Exo Rally Championship, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×187 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 46 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $5.8k → $1.6k → $899 → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $280,388)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 64
Announced 46
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Racing, Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 921 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RAGE 2 2019 · $17M Star Trucker 2024 · $3.7M GRIP: Combat Racing 2018 · $3.3M Redout: Enhanced Edition 2016 · $2.1M Pacer 2020 · $691k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RAGE 2 older $39.99 14,019 64% 421k $17M (exactly $16,818,594) id Software, Avalanche Studios
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
Redout: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,438 84% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,769) 34BigThings srl
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
ExoCross older $19.99 437 68% 13k $262k (exactly $262,069) iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, iRa… (iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, iRacing)
Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) older $24.99 250 70% 7.5k $187k (exactly $187,425) Auroch Digital
Vector 36 older $24.99 241 80% 7.2k $181k (exactly $180,678) Red River Studio
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
inRun $14.99 13 53% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Ivanovich Games
Open Robot $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Loomeit Studios
Racer Overdrive $5.99 18 88% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) IntActive
Bridge Orders - Outrim: The Unseen Enemy · EA $9.99 7 71% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) POISOFT
Under Destruction · EA $18.99 3 66% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Quantum Dynamics
Hover REV Hispeed Burst $10.99 5 60% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) JKK_WORKS
Scifi Racing Team $11.99 4 75% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Delicious Lines

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.