Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Sci-fi

Of 235 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 436 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×684 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 436 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 436 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 235
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $5.4k → $898 → $1.8k → $2.5k → $2.4k → $2.5k (still earning) → $989 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 235
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,988)
Top 5% $325k (exactly $325,133)
Developers, 2 yr 235
Released games 675
Announced 436
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 22,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 146 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 436 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
The Invincible older $29.99 10,055 87% 302k $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) Starward Industries
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition older $24.99 8,722 96% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) SIGONO INC.
Finding Paradise older $9.99 18,126 97% 544k $5.4M (exactly $5,432,362) Freebird Games
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Haven older $24.99 5,294 88% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,968,912) The Game Bakers
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH $13.99 2,324 90% 70k $975k (exactly $975,383) U0U Games
Goodnight Universe $19.99 1,347 96% 40k $808k (exactly $807,796) Nice Dream
Old Skies $19.99 969 93% 29k $581k (exactly $581,109) Wadjet Eye Games
Whispers from the Star $9.99 1,662 80% 50k $498k (exactly $498,101) Anuttacon
Stories from Sol: The Gun-Dog $14.99 843 90% 25k $379k (exactly $379,097) Space Colony Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.