Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Sci-fi

Of 187 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 362 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×1229 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 362 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 362 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 187
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $9.0k → $3.1k → $599 → $1.4k → $5.1k → $839 (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 187
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,989)
Top 5% $772k (exactly $771,530)
Developers, 2 yr 187
Released games 591
Announced 362
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 53,458 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 362 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.