Do I ship it?

GamesSubmarineSubmarine + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Submarine game?

Submarine + Sci-fi

Only 18 developers shipped a Sci-fi Submarine game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Darkwater, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×472 the market median. Revenue is up 670% on the market; 34 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 670% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $3.4k → $2.8k → $1.1k → $1.8k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Submarine + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,683)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 51
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 670% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Submarine; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,133 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 31 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  9. + NavalPoor odds19 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  10. + ExplorationPoor odds32 devs · median $959 · 72 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced
  12. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $958 · 20 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Iron Lung older $7.99 10,168 92% 305k $2.4M (exactly $2,437,270) David Szymanski
Under The Waves older $29.99 1,683 77% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,195) Parallel Studio
STASIS: BONE TOTEM older $19.99 2,025 93% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) THE BROTHERHOOD
Model Builder: Complete Edition older $19.99 1,058 74% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) Moonlit S.A.
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games
Submarine Titans older $4.99 348 86% 10k $52k (exactly $52,096) Ellipse Studios
AquaNox older $4.99 287 76% 8.6k $43k (exactly $42,964) Massive Development
Swirl W@tch older $14.99 54 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Sleeper Games
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
CRUSH DEPTH $7.99 49 97% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Earth Giant
The Abyss Below $4.99 58 81% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Broken Relay
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Submeris $4.99 19 57% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) OxygenStudio
Deep Sea Idle: Infinity Abyss $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) HIGHKICKSTUDIO
Silent Paradise Anthology $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Dreamnoid
7821 Akuji $8.99 4 100% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) CatBiteStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.