Do I ship it?

Games › Asynchronous Multiplayer › Asynchronous Multiplayer + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Asynchronous Multiplayer game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Sci-fi

Of 33 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Asynchronous Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $8.9M, ×14258 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 57 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $3.0k → $7.2k → $599 (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,000)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,022)
Top 5% $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 76
Announced 57
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Combat, PvP
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 35,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $8.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH 2026 · $32M The Bazaar 2025 · $9.0M Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector 2021 · $6.1M Shadow Empire 2020 · $1.7M Frozen Synapse 2011 · $831k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
Ascension: Deckbuilding Game older $9.99 1,435 88% 43k $430k (exactly $430,070) Playdek, Inc.
GLADIABOTS - AI Combat Arena older $14.99 846 87% 25k $380k (exactly $380,446) GFX47
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Quantum Odyssey · EA $17.99 141 92% 4.2k $76k (exactly $76,098) Quarks Interactive
Empyreal $14.99 123 69% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Silent Games
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Evolve Lab · EA $14.99 69 94% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) SiRen Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.