Do I ship it?

GamesLocal Co-OpLocal Co-Op + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Local Co-Op game?

Local Co-Op + Sci-fi

Of 106 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×1240 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 162 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 162 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Co-Op + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 106
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $1.7k → $2.7k → $4.7k → $2.2k → $12k → $1.1k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Co-Op + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 106
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,189)
Top 5% $589k (exactly $588,905)
Developers, 2 yr 106
Released games 467
Announced 162
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Co-Op; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Adventure
Price point
$8.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.00.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 115,909 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair11 devs · median $14k · 12 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair16 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  4. + TriviaFair12 devs · median $7.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Action RPGFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  6. + ModernFair11 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Dark FantasyFair40 devs · median $2.7k · 47 announced
  8. + Board GameFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  9. + Dungeon CrawlerFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  10. + MedievalFair46 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair22 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  12. + Point & ClickFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 9 announced

All 151 pairs on the Local Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga older $49.99 38,294 90% 1.1M $57M (exactly $57,429,512) TT Games
Serious Sam 3: BFE older $29.99 21,834 87% 655k $20M (exactly $19,644,050) Croteam
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 5 older $59.99 9,375 93% 281k $17M (exactly $16,872,188) SANDLOT
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
LEGO® Star Wars™ - The Complete Saga older $19.99 20,768 96% 623k $12M (exactly $12,454,570) Traveller's Tales
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep
Together: Moon Escape $9.99 868 90% 26k $260k (exactly $260,140) CarlosGameDev
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Kingdom of Night $19.99 326 86% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Friends of Safety

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.