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Should I ship a Sci-fi Walking Simulator?
Walking Simulator + Sci-fi
Of 159 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 264 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×546 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 264 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $5.4k (exactly $5,415) |
| Top 5% | $260k (exactly $259,540) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 159 |
| Released games | 485 |
| Announced | 264 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Sci-fi
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Walking Simulator; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 35,137 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 112 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 264 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WarFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + ThrillerFair
- + MusicFair
- + SupernaturalFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + NoirFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT | older | $39.99 | 49,837 91% | 1.5M | $60M (exactly $59,789,449) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS |
| | Outlast | older | $14.99 | 104,353 96% | 3.1M | $47M (exactly $46,927,544) | Red Barrels |
| | SOMA | older | $29.99 | 46,772 95% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,080,768) | Frictional Games |
| | DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH | $69.99 | 15,434 94% | 463k | $32M (exactly $32,406,770) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software | |
| | Scorn | older | $49.99 | 14,546 77% | 436k | $22M (exactly $21,814,636) | Ebb Software |
| | Still Wakes the Deep | older | $34.99 | 11,213 87% | 336k | $12M (exactly $11,770,286) | The Chinese Room |
| | The Talos Principle 2 | older | $29.99 | 12,478 94% | 374k | $11M (exactly $11,226,457) | Croteam |
| | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
| | Cloudpunk | older | $19.99 | 13,788 87% | 414k | $8.3M (exactly $8,268,664) | ION LANDS |
| | Viscera Cleanup Detail | older | $12.99 | 18,053 92% | 542k | $7.0M (exactly $7,035,254) | RuneStorm |
| | ROUTINE | $24.99 | 7,322 91% | 220k | $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) | Lunar Software | |
| | KARMA: The Dark World | $24.99 | 3,963 90% | 119k | $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) | POLLARD STUDIO LLC | |
| | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
| | Amenti | $6.99 | 2,184 80% | 66k | $458k (exactly $457,985) | Darkphobia Games | |
| | The Inn-Sanity | $7.99 | 1,561 96% | 47k | $374k (exactly $374,172) | Steppe Hare Studio | |
| | Cybernetic Fault | $14.99 | 679 78% | 20k | $305k (exactly $305,346) | Whale Rock Games | |
| | GIRLS MADE PUDDING | $9.99 | 866 95% | 26k | $260k (exactly $259,540) | Kazuhide Oka | |
| | Arctic Awakening | $24.99 | 328 84% | 9.8k | $246k (exactly $245,902) | GoldFire Studios | |
| | Ambrosia Sky | $24.99 | 267 89% | 8.0k | $200k (exactly $200,170) | Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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