Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Economy game?

Economy + Sci-fi

Of 138 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 292 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1221 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 292 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 292 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 138
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $3.6k → $2.7k → $1.6k → $3.3k → $4.0k → $3.0k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 138
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $767k (exactly $766,544)
Developers, 2 yr 138
Released games 289
Announced 292
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Strategy, Resource Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 44,896 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 292 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jurassic World Evolution 2 older $59.99 39,644 90% 1.2M $71M (exactly $71,347,307) Frontier Developments
Jurassic World Evolution older $44.99 48,311 87% 1.4M $65M (exactly $65,205,357) Frontier Developments
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Starvester $6.99 790 69% 24k $166k (exactly $165,663) Syphono4

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.