Should I ship a Sci-fi RTS?
RTS + Sci-fi
Of 136 developers who shipped a Sci-fi RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 290 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×520 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 290 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,390) |
| Top 5% | $779k (exactly $778,938) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 136 |
| Released games | 551 |
| Announced | 290 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Tactical
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 29,780 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 290 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Dyson Sphere Program 2021 · EA · $50M 
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack 2010 · $22M 
ENDLESS Space™ 2 2017 · $21M 
Aliens: Dark Descent 2023 · $18M 
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III 2017 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dyson Sphere Program | · EA older | $19.99 | 83,523 97% | 2.5M | $50M (exactly $50,088,743) | Youthcat Studio |
| | STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack | older | $19.99 | 36,153 97% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,680,954) | Petroglyph |
| | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Aliens: Dark Descent | older | $39.99 | 15,310 87% | 459k | $18M (exactly $18,367,407) | Tindalos Interactive |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III | older | $39.99 | 14,436 50% | 433k | $17M (exactly $17,318,869) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Homeworld Remastered Collection | older | $34.99 | 11,977 87% | 359k | $13M (exactly $12,572,257) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac) |
 | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) | older | $49.99 | 8,084 85% | 243k | $12M (exactly $12,123,575) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux)) |
 | Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak | older | $49.99 | 7,800 79% | 234k | $12M (exactly $11,697,660) | Blackbird Interactive |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition | $29.99 | 12,286 85% | 369k | $11M (exactly $11,053,714) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | The Crust | $31.99 | 3,502 76% | 105k | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) | VEOM Studio | |
 | Tower Dominion | $17.49 | 5,117 85% | 154k | $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) | Parallel 45 Games | |
 | Desynced | $29.99 | 1,879 79% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) | Stage Games Inc. | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | ERA ONE | · EA | $29.99 | 1,575 86% | 47k | $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) | Team Complex LTD |
 | Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes | $24.99 | 1,039 76% | 31k | $779k (exactly $778,938) | Alt Shift | |
 | Rogue Command | $19.99 | 1,018 89% | 31k | $610k (exactly $610,495) | feneq | |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Creeper World IXE | $19.99 | 855 69% | 26k | $513k (exactly $512,743) | Knuckle Cracker |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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