Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Sci-fi

Of 391 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 763 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×662 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 763 games are announced against 228 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 763 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 391
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $1.4k → $838 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 391
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $314,321)
Developers, 2 yr 391
Released games 1,106
Announced 763
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.95

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
Price point
$7.95 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.95.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 147,477 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 205 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 763 games are announced against 228 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Senren*Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Terminator: Resistance older $39.99 16,665 91% 500k $20M (exactly $19,993,000) Teyon
ATRI -My Dear Moments- older $20.99 21,411 98% 642k $13M (exactly $13,482,507) Frontwing, 枕
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
The Invincible older $29.99 10,055 87% 302k $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) Starward Industries
Dead Rising Deluxe Remaster $49.99 2,971 80% 89k $4.5M (exactly $4,455,609) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Prypiat - Enhanced Edition $19.99 3,273 65% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,818) GSC Game World
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Clear Sky - Enhanced Edition $19.99 2,698 59% 81k $1.6M (exactly $1,617,991) GSC Game World
Terminator 2D: NO FATE $29.99 1,450 84% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,304,565) Bitmap Bureau
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.