Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › RTS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RTS?

RTS

Of 811 developers who shipped an RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,440 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×746 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 1,440 games are announced against 427 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 1,440 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 811
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $3.0k → $2.7k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $3.0k → $1.5k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 811
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,599)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921)
Developers, 2 yr 811
Released games 2,895
Announced 1,440
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 154,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 486 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,440 games are announced against 427 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with RTS

34 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. RTS + Rome Fair $64k 12 devs
  2. RTS + Horror Fair $2.4k 20 devs
  3. RTS + Naval Fair $2.4k 15 devs
  4. RTS + World War II Poor odds $105k 23 devs
  5. RTS + Historical Poor odds $30k 108 devs
  6. RTS + Alternate History Poor odds $15k 34 devs
  7. RTS + Mechs Poor odds $14k 16 devs
  8. RTS + Modern Poor odds $13k 35 devs
  9. RTS + Military Poor odds $6.9k 149 devs
  10. RTS + War Poor odds $6.3k 207 devs
  11. RTS + Cold War Poor odds $4.8k 12 devs
  12. RTS + Medieval Poor odds $4.5k 144 devs
  13. RTS + Capitalism Poor odds $4.2k 39 devs
  14. RTS + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.2k 21 devs
  15. RTS + Demons Poor odds $3.8k 13 devs
  16. RTS + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $3.0k 38 devs
  17. RTS + Zombies Poor odds $3.0k 31 devs
  18. RTS + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 136 devs
  19. RTS + Mythology Poor odds $2.3k 23 devs
  20. RTS + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.2k 40 devs
  21. RTS + Dragons Poor odds $2.2k 9 devs
  22. RTS + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 68 devs
  23. RTS + Aliens Poor odds $1.9k 40 devs
  24. RTS + Fantasy Poor odds $1.8k 161 devs
  25. RTS + Space Poor odds $1.5k 89 devs
  26. RTS + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 21 devs
  27. RTS + Nature Poor odds $1.4k 31 devs
  28. RTS + Futuristic Poor odds $1.2k 76 devs
  29. RTS + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $899 32 devs
  30. RTS + Dystopian Poor odds $899 21 devs
  31. RTS + Science Poor odds $719 11 devs
  32. RTS + Cyberpunk Poor odds $450 17 devs
  33. RTS + Pirates Dead $54k 6 devs
  34. RTS + World War I Dead $3.2k 6 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.