Should I ship a Medieval RTS?
RTS + Medieval
Of 144 developers who shipped a Medieval RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 283 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×3.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $4.0M, ×2704 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 283 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $657 (exactly $657) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.5k (exactly $4,497) |
| Top 25% | $72k (exactly $71,940) |
| Top 5% | $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 144 |
| Released games | 418 |
| Announced | 283 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Simulation
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 118,687 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $660. 7 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 283 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M 
Age of Empires II (Retired) 2013 · $51M 
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition 2020 · $39M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 158,931 94% | 4.8M | $167M (exactly $166,829,871) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
| | Age of Empires II (Retired) | older | $19.99 | 84,818 95% | 2.5M | $51M (exactly $50,865,355) | Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires) |
| | Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 37,093 84% | 1.1M | $39M (exactly $38,936,522) | World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires) |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Banished | older | $19.99 | 37,895 90% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,725,632) | Shining Rock Software LLC |
 | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 27,319 95% | 820k | $16M (exactly $16,383,204) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Diplomacy is Not an Option | $29.99 | 10,904 85% | 327k | $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) | Door 407 | |
 | Age of Darkness: Final Stand | $27.99 | 9,486 74% | 285k | $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) | PlaySide | |
 | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Pioneers of Pagonia | $34.99 | 4,794 81% | 144k | $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) | Envision Entertainment | |
 | The King is Watching | $14.99 | 9,006 88% | 270k | $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) | Hypnohead | |
 | Becastled | $19.99 | 5,349 81% | 160k | $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) | Mana Potion Studios | |
 | Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim | $24.90 | 2,938 77% | 88k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) | Rockbee Team |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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