Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI RTS?

RTS + Artificial Intelligence

Of 32 developers who shipped an AI RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 58 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 115% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $298 → $330 → $7.2k → $89 → $2.1k → $420 (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $63k (exactly $62,508)
Top 5% $22M (exactly $21,866,355)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 111
Announced 58
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 41,037 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M Anno 117: Pax Romana 2025 · $22M Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018 · $9.8M From the Depths 2020 · $8.3M Starship Troopers: Terran Command 2022 · $8.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 older $19.99 7,206 84% 216k $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) Brilliant Game Studios
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Lewd Dungeon Manager 🔞 $14.99 139 66% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Lewd Star
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
BM Love Cafe $7.99 204 77% 6.1k $49k (exactly $48,899) zzzgame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.