Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature RTS?

RTS + Nature

Of 31 developers who shipped a Nature RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×4645 the market median. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 49 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 49 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $269 → $449 → $299 → $8.1k → $20k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,846)
Top 5% $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 86
Announced 49
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 26,846 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $6.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Imagine Earth older $24.99 810 79% 24k $607k (exactly $607,257) Serious Bros.
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Crab God older $19.99 268 82% 8.0k $161k (exactly $160,720) Chaos Theory Games
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
NAMAKORIUM (ナマコリウム) $11.99 148 93% 4.4k $53k (exactly $53,236) Polyscape Inc.
Pocket Harvest older $8.99 106 86% 3.2k $29k (exactly $28,588) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
ダンジョンに生息だ! $7.99 112 90% 3.4k $27k (exactly $26,846) ドクローネ
Sea Walker Saga · EA $9.99 66 93% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Antelus Games
Beyond the Grove · EA $14.99 18 77% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Not a Duck

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.