Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic RTS?

RTS + Futuristic

Of 76 developers who shipped a Futuristic RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×307 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 159 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 159 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $298 → $1.1k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $1.4k → $597 (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $460k (exactly $459,748)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 247
Announced 159
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Wargame
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 13,739 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homeworld Remastered Collection older $34.99 11,977 87% 359k $13M (exactly $12,572,257) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac)
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $14.99 8,812 94% 264k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,756) Relic Entertainment
Supreme Commander 2 older $12.99 8,349 87% 250k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) Gas Powered Games
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
Outworld Station $18.99 807 84% 24k $460k (exactly $459,748) Trickjump Games Ltd
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
Liquidation RTS · EA $21.99 161 89% 4.8k $106k (exactly $106,212) Divio
Outlive 25 $11.99 204 93% 6.1k $73k (exactly $73,379) Continuum Entertainment
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.