Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic RTS?

RTS + Post-apocalyptic

Of 38 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×2244 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 84 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 84 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $150 → $23k → $1.3k → $16k → $77k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $91,154)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 123
Announced 84
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Survival, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 19,524 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Kenshi 2018 · $89M They Are Billions 2019 · $42M IXION 2022 · $16M Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios
Rift Riff $12.99 367 94% 11k $143k (exactly $143,020) Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs K… (Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs Koster, Franz LaZerte, Professional Panda)
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Dying Breed · EA $17.99 218 71% 6.5k $118k (exactly $117,655) Sarnayer
After Long Night $9.99 381 72% 11k $114k (exactly $114,186) 疯狗工作室
Dark Moon $19.99 152 46% 4.6k $91k (exactly $91,154) Jujubee S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.