Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day RTS?

RTS + Modern

Of 35 developers who shipped a Modern-Day RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×8.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×7857 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 39 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $104k → $8.8k → $68k → $479 → $89k → $6.3k (still earning) → $146k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $13k (exactly $12,946)
Top 25% $187k (exactly $186,550)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,770,257)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 89
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, Management
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 41,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M Call to Arms 2018 · $7.8M 112 Operator 2020 · $4.3M Regiments 2022 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Call to Arms older $14.99 17,431 80% 523k $7.8M (exactly $7,838,721) Digitalmindsoft
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Syrian Warfare older $13.99 5,246 86% 157k $2.2M (exactly $2,201,746) Cats Who Play
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Geo-Political Simulator 2026 Edition $59.99 249 48% 7.5k $448k (exactly $448,125) Eversim
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.