Should I ship a Mythological RTS?
RTS + Mythology
Of 23 developers who shipped a Mythological RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×284 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,338) |
| Top 25% | $73k (exactly $73,485) |
| Top 5% | $425k (exactly $425,187) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 66 |
| Announced | 39 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Base Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,434 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition 2014 · $29M 
Age of Mythology: Retold 2024 · $19M 
Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess 2024 · $2.3M 
A Total War Saga: TROY 2021 · $2.0M 
Tabletop Tavern 2026 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Age of Mythology: Extended Edition | older | $29.99 | 31,869 93% | 956k | $29M (exactly $28,672,539) | SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires) |
| | Age of Mythology: Retold | older | $29.99 | 20,943 90% | 628k | $19M (exactly $18,842,417) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus Media, CaptureAge, Virtuos Games) |
| | Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess | older | $39.99 | 1,898 92% | 57k | $2.3M (exactly $2,277,031) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | A Total War Saga: TROY | older | $19.99 | 3,324 71% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,993,403) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Tabletop Tavern | $19.99 | 2,049 89% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) | TJ | |
 | Gord | older | $49.99 | 809 53% | 24k | $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) | Covenant.dev |
 | Godsworn | · EA older | $29.99 | 805 93% | 24k | $724k (exactly $724,258) | Thunderoak Interactive |
 | Celestial Empire | · EA | $19.99 | 709 89% | 21k | $425k (exactly $425,187) | President Studio |
 | Builders of Greece | $19.99 | 537 54% | 16k | $322k (exactly $322,039) | BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs | |
 | Demigod | older | $9.99 | 1,011 75% | 30k | $303k (exactly $302,997) | Gas Powered Games |
 | Night is Coming | · EA | $24.99 | 387 59% | 12k | $290k (exactly $290,134) | Wild Forest Studio |
 | Builders of Egypt | $19.99 | 461 31% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Strategy Labs | |
 | Touhou Spell Carnival | $49.99 | 49 77% | 1.5k | $73k (exactly $73,485) | Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING | |
 | XiuzhenWorld2 | $12.99 | 134 67% | 4.0k | $52k (exactly $52,220) | Noforgetit | |
 | Realms of Madness | $15.99 | 39 89% | 1.2k | $19k (exactly $18,708) | Robin van der Horst | |
 | Creo God Simulator | $9.99 | 35 68% | 1.1k | $10k (exactly $10,490) | MKSM Design LLC | |
 | Sunstone War | $4.99 | 34 97% | 1.0k | $5.1k (exactly $5,090) | Blukulélé, Cyrolis Dev |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.