Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist RTS?

RTS + Capitalism

Of 39 developers who shipped a Capitalist RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×253 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 44 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 44 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3M → $4.1k → $25k → $7.4k → $4.2k → $2.1k (still earning) → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,728)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $379,348)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 86
Announced 44
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Management, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 3,402 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tropico 4 2011 · $3.7M Total War: PHARAOH 2023 · $3.3M Rise of Industry 2019 · $2.8M Geo-Political Simulator 5 2024 · $704k Imagine Earth 2021 · $607k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
Total War: PHARAOH older $29.99 3,622 63% 109k $3.3M (exactly $3,258,713) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Imagine Earth older $24.99 810 79% 24k $607k (exactly $607,257) Serious Bros.
Geo-Political Simulator 2026 Edition $59.99 249 48% 7.5k $448k (exactly $448,125) Eversim
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
E-Shop Tycoon $13.99 604 72% 18k $253k (exactly $253,499) Aeolian Games
King of Retail 2 · EA $19.99 275 79% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Freaking Games
Deep Corp · EA $11.99 365 89% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) KishMish Games
Check Inn $14.99 197 84% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) KishMish Games
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.