Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led RTS?

RTS + Female Protagonist

Of 21 developers who shipped a Female-Led RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×49 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $16k → $4.5k → $4.2k → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,840)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $73,485)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 64
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Real Time Tactics
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,947 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Evil Genius 2: World Domination older $39.99 11,255 69% 338k $14M (exactly $13,502,624) Rebellion
Homeworld Remastered Collection older $34.99 11,977 87% 359k $13M (exactly $12,572,257) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac)
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Grey Goo older $29.99 2,602 69% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) Petroglyph, Six Foot
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Touhou Monster TD ~ 幻想乡妖怪塔防 older $18.99 948 90% 28k $540k (exactly $540,076) MyACG Studio
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
Barely Working · EA $14.99 156 91% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Deep Games LLC
Destroy! Mosaic! $4.99 135 77% 4.1k $20k (exactly $20,210) 悠悠幽靈工作室
Aestheta $2.99 198 89% 5.9k $18k (exactly $17,761) AploveStudio
Chaos Entropy $11.00 48 89% 1.4k $16k (exactly $15,840) MILLIDIA
GiLGuL $19.99 19 94% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Production Exabilities
Sun Halo $5.99 60 85% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,782) Renka
Homeworld: Vast Reaches $29.99 9 66% 270 $8.1k (exactly $8,097) FarBridge
Balorizon $6.99 25 68% 750 $5.2k (exactly $5,242) Renka

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.