Should I ship a Dragon RTS?
RTS + Dragons
Only 9 developers shipped a Dragon RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Circle Empires 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×69 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 32 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,153) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,587) |
| Top 5% | $104k (exactly $103,660) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 34 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 700% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS
- Price point
- $6.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 6,492 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 32 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Divinity: Dragon Commander 2013 · $2.4M 
Driftland: The Magic Revival 2019 · $863k 
Circle Empires Rivals 2020 · $749k 
Bahamut2-dragon's bride 2021 · $175k 
Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator 2021 · EA · $128k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Divinity: Dragon Commander | older | $39.99 | 1,976 73% | 59k | $2.4M (exactly $2,370,607) | Larian Studios |
| | Driftland: The Magic Revival | older | $19.99 | 1,439 73% | 43k | $863k (exactly $862,968) | Star Drifters |
| | Circle Empires Rivals | older | $15.99 | 1,561 89% | 47k | $749k (exactly $748,812) | Luminous |
| | Bahamut2-dragon's bride | older | $9.99 | 584 97% | 18k | $175k (exactly $175,025) | 王韋 |
| | Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator | · EA older | $9.99 | 426 84% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,672) | Mutiny Software |
 | Circle Empires 2 | $12.99 | 266 72% | 8.0k | $104k (exactly $103,660) | Luminous | |
 | No King No Kingdom | older | $14.99 | 126 84% | 3.8k | $57k (exactly $56,662) | Fullmetal Developer |
 | Realms of Madness | $15.99 | 39 89% | 1.2k | $19k (exactly $18,708) | Robin van der Horst | |
 | Warena | $9.99 | 42 52% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $12,587) | Part Time Monkey | |
 | Fantasy Empires | older | $9.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) | Silicon Knights |
 | Warsong | · EA | $14.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $4.5k (exactly $4,497) | Windforce |
 | Classic Tower Defense 2 | $2.99 | 24 95% | 720 | $2.2k (exactly $2,153) | Blacksmith Forge | |
 | Paper Mages | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Gently Giant LLC | |
 | Banana Drama | $1.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Dommenuss, Pikachau | |
 | Think and Choice | $6.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | OldWilder7 | |
 | Abyss Cards | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Youhooo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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