Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy RTS?

RTS + Fantasy

Of 161 developers who shipped a Fantasy RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 343 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1121 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 343 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 343 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 161
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $3.6k → $1.9k → $628 → $1.3k → $8.1k → $2.2k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 161
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,780)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 161
Released games 532
Announced 343
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, City Builder
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 54,264 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 343 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Age of Mythology: Extended Edition 2014 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition older $29.99 31,869 93% 956k $29M (exactly $28,672,539) SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Age of Mythology: Retold older $29.99 20,943 90% 628k $19M (exactly $18,842,417) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus Media, CaptureAge, Virtuos Games)
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
SpellForce 3 Reforced older $39.99 5,784 76% 174k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) Grimlore Games
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Battle Realms: Zen Edition $14.99 4,198 88% 126k $1.9M (exactly $1,887,841) Ed Del Castillo
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.