Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science RTS?

RTS + Science

Only 11 developers shipped a Science RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Screeps: Arena, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $2.6k → $20k → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,949)
Top 5% $63k (exactly $62,968)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 16
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Star Trek: Infinite 2023 · $2.7M Imagine Earth 2021 · $607k Ancient Space 2014 · $162k SERIES MAKERS TYCOON 2019 · $77k Screeps: Arena 2025 · $63k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Imagine Earth older $24.99 810 79% 24k $607k (exactly $607,257) Serious Bros.
Ancient Space older $19.99 270 42% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) CreativeForge Games
SERIES MAKERS TYCOON older $4.99 514 71% 15k $77k (exactly $76,946) CREW Studio Krüger UG
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Microcosmum 2 older $9.99 113 56% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Satur Entertainment
Lazy Galaxy older $4.99 188 78% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Coldwild Games, Vladimir Slav, Elena Na… (Coldwild Games, Vladimir Slav, Elena Nazarenko)
Beetle Uprising older $9.99 87 72% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Iocane Games, LLC
Stellar Reach $19.99 34 79% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Stelleas
BlackChain older $4.99 110 84% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,467) Borington
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Gelluloid Domination $11.99 13 84% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Tractor Set GO!
Propa. $7.99 11 54% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Contagio Games
Asteroid Colony · EA $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Christian Lutnik
Project: Aurora $13.99 1 100% 30 $420 (exactly $420) Tesseract Games
Exo Exploits · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Flying Hound Studio
Going Viral $0.99 3 100% 90 $89 (exactly $89) Meninx Games, C. S. Cooper
Orion Wars $0.99 3 66% 90 $89 (exactly $89) Sneeden Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.