Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian RTS?

RTS + Dystopian

Of 21 developers who shipped a Dystopian RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 35% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1M → $179 → $1.8k → $0 → $719 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,599)
Top 5% $124k (exactly $123,538)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 49
Announced 36
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Grand Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 923 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance 2024 · $4.1M Miasma Chronicles 2023 · $2.1M Cavalry Girls 2023 · $675k Nuclear Dawn 2011 · $485k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Nuclear Dawn older $9.99 1,619 78% 49k $485k (exactly $485,214) GameConnect, InterWave Studios
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Dying Breed · EA $17.99 218 71% 6.5k $118k (exactly $117,655) Sarnayer
Quarantineer older $9.99 307 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Papaonn
Fall of an Empire $29.99 80 67% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) JG Games
Red Rocket Defencism $7.99 172 98% 5.2k $41k (exactly $41,228) tiny cactus studio
Kiloton $6.99 103 96% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,599) Jack Morehart
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios
Simulation $3.99 10 80% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) eCho Software
Tin Lord $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) IcosaCore
Zombocalypse Now! $10.99 3 66% 90 $989 (exactly $989) Pixel Drip Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.