Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval RTS?

RTS + Naval

Only 15 developers shipped a Naval RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $960. Revenue is up 3905% on the market; 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 3905% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.2M → $54k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $955 (exactly $955)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 54
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3905% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; all of the top 25% also carry Naval Combat, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,978 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  5. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  6. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  7. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  10. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds23 devs · median $22k · 48 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

UBOAT 2024 · $23M Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition 2009 · $13M Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition 2010 · $11M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition older $19.99 21,302 89% 639k $13M (exactly $12,774,809) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition older $19.99 18,004 91% 540k $11M (exactly $10,796,999) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2 older $19.99 9,701 74% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,690) Tindalos Interactive
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
Star Ash Fleet $9.99 8 50% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Redonleft
Ship of the line · EA $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) YDS
Crisis Commander: Strait Of Hormuz $3.99 9 77% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) Kra Kra Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.