Should I ship a Noir game?
Noir
Of 478 developers who shipped a Noir game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 900 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 900 games are announced against 301 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,058) |
| Top 5% | $337k (exactly $337,275) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 478 |
| Released games | 1,384 |
| Announced | 900 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 72,464 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 228 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 900 games are announced against 301 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
All pairs with Noir
- Action-Adventure + Noir Poor odds $719
- Roguelike + Noir Poor odds $683
- Top-Down Shooter + Noir Poor odds $683
- Arcade + Noir Poor odds $598
- Hack and Slash + Noir Poor odds $598
- Card Game + Noir Poor odds $535
- Life Sim + Noir Poor odds $535
- Puzzle Platformer + Noir Poor odds $419
- Bullet Hell + Noir Poor odds $416
- Shoot 'Em Up + Noir Poor odds $416
- Management + Noir Poor odds $359
- Inventory Management + Noir Poor odds $359
- 2D Platformer + Noir Poor odds $356
- Dungeon Crawler + Noir Poor odds $300
- Time Management + Noir Poor odds $240
- Action Roguelike + Noir Poor odds $210
- Third-Person Shooter + Noir Dead $6.7k
- Beat 'em up + Noir Dead $6.6k
- Racing + Noir Dead $418
- Mystery Dungeon + Noir Dead $359
- Runner + Noir Dead $359
- Precision Platformer + Noir Dead $300
- Idler + Noir Dead $299
- Physics + Noir Dead $270
- Roguelite + Noir Dead $269
- Tabletop + Noir Dead $269
- Perma Death + Noir Dead $179
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M 
Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M 
Katana ZERO 2019 · $30M 
Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Mafia: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 88,955 86% | 2.7M | $107M (exactly $106,719,314) | Hangar 13 |
| | Max Payne 3 | older | $19.99 | 55,150 86% | 1.7M | $33M (exactly $33,073,455) | Rockstar Studios |
| | Katana ZERO | older | $14.99 | 66,341 97% | 2.0M | $30M (exactly $29,833,548) | Askiisoft |
| | Mafia II: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,886 74% | 867k | $26M (exactly $25,988,734) | Hangar 13, D3T |
 | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
 | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | Skullgirls 2nd Encore | older | $24.99 | 23,071 88% | 692k | $17M (exactly $17,296,329) | Hidden Variable Studios |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | MOUSE: P.I. For Hire | $29.99 | 14,604 93% | 438k | $13M (exactly $13,139,219) | Fumi Games | |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | The Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 9,700 96% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) | Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | The Drifter | $19.99 | 4,735 97% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) | Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd | |
 | Psycho Patrol R | · EA | $39.99 | 2,090 88% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) | Consumer Softproducts |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Slots & Daggers | $7.99 | 7,421 93% | 223k | $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) | Friedemann |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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